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Sunday, November 15, 2009

Unemployment outlook with generous assumptions

Mish predicting unemployment:

Yet, in spite of all those generous assumptions, no double dip recession, no second recession, high rates of job growth and falling participation rates all the way through 2020, and unemployment peaking at 11.6% not 13%, the best I can do is suggest the unemployment rate will be over 10% all the way through 2015 and never dip below 8% all the way out through the end of 2020.

With a rosy outlook like that, who needs a worst case scenario? Such as Prechter's prediction that we will double from here to a U3 of 20% in a major global depression.



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